The question is, are the currently available prediction markets web services compliant with the era of attention economics? Are we able to attract a critical mass of users, thereby surpassing the tipping point needed to turn the mechanism of markets to a typical decision support and forecasting tool?
If a picture is worth a thousand words and assuming that a website’s source code is an unbiased descriptor of its complexity, I attempted to take a look at the homepages of some popular prediction markets web services, using this ‘websites as graphs’ tool. In the results that follow, each cycle represents an html tag.
- buzz game of yahoo, a source of inspiration for us
- my beloved inkling markets
- our approach at askmarkets.com (yet in alpha version)