In a few hours, the workshop The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications starts at Palm Desert, California.
The quality of presenters is excellent and the workshop has succeeded in attracting high level contributions. The program and complete list of papers to be presented are available here, while directly related to prediction markets papers are:
- Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors? by Bob Erikson, Columbia University and Chris Wlezien, Temple University
- Optimal Price Setting in Fixed-Odds Betting Markets Under Information by Raphael Markellos and Vasiliki A. Makropoulou, Athens University of Economics and Business
- Hitting Home Runs and the Art of Corporate Valuation: Do Managers or the Prediction Market Make Better Predictions? by Orly Sade, New York University and Hebrew University
- Prediction Markets as a Tool for Management of Political Risk by Ole Jakob Bergfjord, Norwegian School of Economics
- Public Signal Bias and Prediction Market Accuracy by Tom Gruca and Joyce E. Berg, University of Iowa
- Ignorance Prior Bias in Prediction Markets by Lionel Page, University of Westminster
- An Analysis of Tradesports’ 2005-06 National Football League Prediction Market by Feng Zhou and Philip O’Connor, University of Waikato
- Testing the Efficiency of Markets in the 2002 World Cup by Steve Levitt, University of Chicago and Ricard Gil, University of California at Santa Cruz
- Price Formation in Sports Prediction Markets: A Cross-Cultural Study by Stefan Luckner, University of Karlsruhe
- Socially Embedded Prediction Markets by Yiling Chen and David M. Pennock, Yahoo! Research
- Manipulators Increase Information Market Accuracy by Robin Hanson, George Mason University and Ryan Oprea, University of California, Santa Cruz
- Is There a Favorite-Longshot Bias in Election Prediction Markets? by Justin Wolfers, University of Pennsylvania, Eric Zitzewitz, Stanford University and Andrew Leigh, Australian National University
- “Using Markets to Inform Policy: The Case of the Iraq War by Eric Zitzewitz, Stanford University and Justin Wolfers, University of Pennsylvania
The exponential pattern of growth recorded in my literature review of the field remains consistent, at least.