The integration with business intelligence software, corporate data warehouses and document indexes will definitely facilitate the task of information collection by traders. I claim that such an integration will also enable the introduction of artificial intelligence agents, namely virtual actors that would trade on the relevant information and knowledge extracted by the CRM/ERP software.
This introduction of a hybrid prediction market, a prediction market populated by both human and artificial agents (term just coined), could solve some problems, such as low trading volume and would by default incorporate extracted explicit knowledge, while also creating some new, like for example the need to fine tune its algorithms. But, after all, I believe that it could trigger a new fascinating research field (machine learning powered, data and textual actors featuring in a prediction market) and empower new hot business applications.
A lot of questions arise. To name a few:
- Could or will such hybrid markets perform better than traditional pure ones?
- Do virtual agents negate the typical virtues of a prediction market (e.g. tabula rasa opening, harnessing ‘just’ the collective intelligence, etc.)?
- Does a market-based meta-algorithm perform better than traditional data mining meta-algorithms (e.g. pure artificial markets vs adaboost)?
- Will such markets be included in the declaration of establishment of The Institute of Prediction Markets or in a forthcoming literature review?
The journey will probably be long but fertile; the ideas exchange is now open.