Prediction markets failed to accurately predict the unexpected effect a few tears had on the New Hampshire primaries; and some analysts rushed to blame the tool and undermine its reliability and applicability. Let me restate some fundamentals and my view, in a snapshot: Markets are not prophets, prophets do not exist. A mechanism’s forecastability should not be judged against a virtual fool-proof …
After the launch of Wall Street Journal’s Political Market (powered by intrade, coverage here and here) and CNN’s Political Market (powered by inkling), McCluskey and Hanson also debuted Presidential Decision Markets. Today, Cowgill, Wolfers and Zitzewitz just released a full-fledged draft studying markets at Google, which is absolutely exceptional, definitely the most massive enterprise prediction markets application and study ever conducted! (coverage by the NY Times here.) I may return to comment further on …
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